Sunday, November 26, 2006
Experts: Travel will stay strong
Thanksgiving increase offers glimpse at Dec.
With travel for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend strong and fuel prices down, experts see no reason why the next big travel period -- Christmas through New Year's -- should not be busier than last year.
Travel-industry organizations such as AAA and Air Transport Association have not yet released their travel forecasts for the Christmas-New Year's holiday week. But experts are optimistic.
"In all probability, the Christmas travel survey will show higher results" than last year, AAA Auto Club South spokesman Gregg Laskoski said.
He pointed to AAA's Thanksgiving holiday weekend forecast, which found that 38.3 million Americans were expected to travel at least 50 miles from home -- up 2.7 percent from last year's Thanksgiving period.
"That's a significant increase," considering the large number of travelers involved, Laskoski said.
While the Thanksgiving travel period spans about five days, the Christmas-New Year's travel period spans eight to 10 days, Laskoski said.
Last year, the AAA forecast found that about 63 million Americans were expected to travel at least 50 miles from home for the Christmas-New Year's holiday period.
Laskoski said more people could travel this year for the year-end holidays, given the drop in fuel prices from last year.
Antoine Smith, an information specialist for the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration, said fuel prices are expected to remain down in the fourth quarter, from October through December.
Smith said the average retail price nationwide for regular unleaded gasoline has been about $2.25 a gallon in the fourth quarter, down from an average of $2.83 a gallon in the third quarter, from July through September -- a peak driving period in the United States.
Also, Smith said it has been a relatively disruption-free year in the fuel industry, without any major world events, hurricanes or other natural disasters impacting supplies, which are currently plentiful.
After Thanksgiving, the amount of travel dips, outside of the specific holiday periods, such as the Christmas-New Year's week. Demand for gas drops -- and gas prices dip as a result, Smith said.
"As demand for gas goes down, the price of crude oil goes down," he added.
However, the Energy Information Administration is forecasting a gradually increase in gas and oil prices in January, leading up to the heavy spring driving season.
"It happens every year," Smith said. "The cycle will repeat itself."
Laskoski sees another factor: the demand for home heating oil in the Northeast. He said gas and oil prices should dip temporarily after Thanksgiving, before starting to rise in mid-December with the increasing winter demand for home heating oil.
With travel for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend strong and fuel prices down, experts see no reason why the next big travel period -- Christmas through New Year's -- should not be busier than last year.
Travel-industry organizations such as AAA and Air Transport Association have not yet released their travel forecasts for the Christmas-New Year's holiday week. But experts are optimistic.
"In all probability, the Christmas travel survey will show higher results" than last year, AAA Auto Club South spokesman Gregg Laskoski said.
He pointed to AAA's Thanksgiving holiday weekend forecast, which found that 38.3 million Americans were expected to travel at least 50 miles from home -- up 2.7 percent from last year's Thanksgiving period.
"That's a significant increase," considering the large number of travelers involved, Laskoski said.
While the Thanksgiving travel period spans about five days, the Christmas-New Year's travel period spans eight to 10 days, Laskoski said.
Last year, the AAA forecast found that about 63 million Americans were expected to travel at least 50 miles from home for the Christmas-New Year's holiday period.
Laskoski said more people could travel this year for the year-end holidays, given the drop in fuel prices from last year.
Antoine Smith, an information specialist for the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration, said fuel prices are expected to remain down in the fourth quarter, from October through December.
Smith said the average retail price nationwide for regular unleaded gasoline has been about $2.25 a gallon in the fourth quarter, down from an average of $2.83 a gallon in the third quarter, from July through September -- a peak driving period in the United States.
Also, Smith said it has been a relatively disruption-free year in the fuel industry, without any major world events, hurricanes or other natural disasters impacting supplies, which are currently plentiful.
After Thanksgiving, the amount of travel dips, outside of the specific holiday periods, such as the Christmas-New Year's week. Demand for gas drops -- and gas prices dip as a result, Smith said.
"As demand for gas goes down, the price of crude oil goes down," he added.
However, the Energy Information Administration is forecasting a gradually increase in gas and oil prices in January, leading up to the heavy spring driving season.
"It happens every year," Smith said. "The cycle will repeat itself."
Laskoski sees another factor: the demand for home heating oil in the Northeast. He said gas and oil prices should dip temporarily after Thanksgiving, before starting to rise in mid-December with the increasing winter demand for home heating oil.
# posted by William : 11:56 PM
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